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Research

Quantitative research on the future of tourism, hospitality, and the visitor economy.

I approach tourism as a data-rich, high-stakes system — one that deserves the same analytical rigour we apply to finance. My current research agenda focuses on predictive modelling, destination resilience, and the digital visitor economy.

Research statement

Tourism is entering a new era — one shaped by digital platforms, climate volatility, and rapidly shifting visitor preferences. My work sits at the intersection of quantitative analytics and strategic tourism management, using large datasets, generalized linear models, and time-series forecasting to answer questions destinations can no longer afford to guess at.

I bring an unusual toolkit to the field: production-grade software engineering, financial accounting rigour, and reproducible statistical practice. This lets me operationalize research — turning insights into dashboards, forecasts, and decision-support tools that DMOs, ministries, and operators can actually use.

Target programmes
  • · University of Glasgow — Adam Smith Business School
  • · University of Surrey — School of Hospitality & Tourism
  • · Bournemouth University — Tourism
  • · Copenhagen Business School
  • · NHTV Breda / Wageningen (NL)
Programmes currently under consideration for 2026 intake.
Interests

Research themes

🌍 Digital visitor economy
🧭 Destination branding
⚠️ Risk & crisis management
🌱 Sustainability & overtourism
📈 Time-series forecasting
🧪 Generalized linear models
🏨 Hospitality revenue analytics
🤖 AI-assisted travel behaviour
Working papers

Papers in progress

Working Paper 01

Predictive Analytics and Financial Modelling in the Digital Visitor Economy

A framework combining time-series forecasting and financial simulation to model destination revenue under multiple visitor-flow scenarios. Uses Prophet, SARIMA, and GLMs on multi-year arrivals data.

ForecastingPythonGLM
Working Paper 02

Destination Branding Effectiveness: A Cross-Platform Sentiment Study

Empirical analysis of destination brand perception across TripAdvisor, Instagram, and Google Reviews, correlating sentiment with arrival volumes.

NLPSentimentR
Working Paper 03

Crisis Resilience Scoring for Emerging Destinations

A composite index measuring destination resilience to demand shocks (pandemics, climate events, geopolitical disruption), calibrated on 2015–2025 arrivals data.

Index designRisk
Working Paper 04

Overtourism & Carrying Capacity in South Asian Heritage Sites

Applying spatial analytics and visitor-flow modelling to quantify sustainable carrying capacity across UNESCO-tier destinations in South Asia.

SustainabilitySpatial
Methodology

Methodological edge

My advantage is not choosing between quantitative rigour and applied engineering — it's doing both. Every study I run is versioned, reproducible, and shippable as a dashboard or API.

📊

Statistical modelling

GLMs, mixed-effects models, structural equation modelling, and Bayesian inference in R and Python.

🧮

Time-series forecasting

SARIMA, Prophet, exponential smoothing, and neural forecasting (N-BEATS, LSTM) for arrivals and revenue.

🧰

Reproducible pipelines

Git-versioned, containerised research pipelines with automated reporting and peer-review-ready outputs.